Decision Analysis I
November 8th, 2015
Case Study Logistics
Due: Friday December 4th, 2015
The case study will give you practice applying the concepts you are learning in MS&E 252.
You are from the XYZ consulting company (you can create your own name). William Jaeger of
Freemark Abbey Winery has hired your company to help him make a production decision. A storm
is approaching the winery and Jaeger is not sure if he should wait for the storm or harvest the grapes
immediately. Sometimes after a warm rain the grapes are attacked by botrytis mold. This mold helps
to produce botrytised Riesling, which is highly valued by wine connoisseurs.
You can find the related Harvard case study here: http://bit.ly/XnxsAD
Meeting with your TA
Teaching assistants will be available to meet groups between November 16th and November 20th.
The time and location will be made available by an email from your case study TA. In your meeting,
the teaching assistant will play the role of Mr. Jaeger.
Your task is to:
1] Assess Mr. Jaeger’s belief about rain
2] Assess Mr. Jaeger’s risk-attitude
Please note that your assessments about Mr. Jaeger’s beliefs and risk attitude will supersede
anything that the Harvard case study states. Assume that Mr. Jaeger does not know decision
analysis and is not comfortable with probabilities. You will be using the Probability Wheel to make
the assessments. An electronic version of the probability wheel is available on Coursework under
Materials->Case Study. Please refer to the “weight of the chair” exercise in class to familiarize
yourself with this tool.
This is also an opportunity for groups to receive feedback and ask clarification questions. To make
the most of this meeting, please bring your decision tree and show it to your TA. Your effort and
preparation for this meeting will count toward your case study grade. Specifically, you will be
graded on how you assess Mr. Jaeger’s beliefs on the probability of rain...