Activity | Immediate
Predecessor | Time Estimate | Expected Time (t) | Variance |
| | Optimistic | Most Likely | Pessimistic | | |
A | - | 8 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 0.44 |
B | - | 27 | 28 | 29 | 28 | 0.11 |
C | A | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0.11 |
D | C | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
E | D | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0.11 |
F | D | 29 | 30 | 31 | 30 | 0.11 |
G | D | 44 | 45 | 46 | 45 | 0.11 |
H | B,D | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
I | F,H | 5 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 0.11 |
J | F | 2 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 1 |
K | E,G,H | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
L | I,J | 5 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 0.11 |
M | L | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0.11 |
N | K,M | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
O | K,M | 2 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 0.44 |
P | N | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Q | N,O | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
R | P,Q | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Critical Path
1) Start – A – C – D – F – J – L – M – N – Q – R- Finish
2) Start – A – C – D – F – J – L – M – O – Q – R- Finish
3) Start – A – C – D – G – K – N – Q – R- Finish
4) Start – A – C – D – G – K – N – P – R- Finish
Completion Time
1) 10+2+1+30+5+6+2+1+1+1=59
2) 10+2+1+30+5+6+2+4+1+1=62
3) 10+2+1+45+1+1+1+1=62
4) 10+2+1+45+1+1+1+1=62
Expected Time
= 62 days
Variance
1) σ^2 = σ A ^2 + σ C ^2 + σ D ^2 + σ F ^2 + σ J ^2 + σ L ^2 + σ M ^2 + σ N ^2 + σ Q ^2 + σ R ^2
= 0.44 + 0.11 + 0 + 0.11 + 1 + 0.11 + 0.11 + 0 + 0 + 0
= 1.88
σ = √1.88
= 1.37
2) σ^2 = σ A ^2 + σ C ^2 + σ D ^2 + σ F ^2 + σ J ^2 + σ L ^2 + σ M ^2 + σ O ^2 + σ Q ^2 + σ R ^2
= 0.44 + 0.11 + 0 + 0.11 + 1 + 0.11 + 0.11 + 0.44 + 0 + 0
= 2.32
σ = √2.32
= 1.523 (take the highest variance)
3) σ^2 = σ A ^2 + σ C ^2 + σ D ^2 + σ G ^2 + σ K ^2 + σ N ^2 + σ Q ^2 + σ R ^2
= 0.44 + 0.11 + 0 + 0.11 + 0 + 0 + 0 + 0
= 0.66
σ = √0.66
= 0.812
4) σ^2 = σ A ^2 + σ C ^2 + σ D ^2 + σ G ^2 + σ K ^2 + σ N ^2 + σ P ^2 + σ R ^2
= 0.44 + 0.11 + 0 + 0.11 + 0 + 0 + 0 + 0
σ = √0.66
= 0.812
d) What is the probability of...