Checkpoint Forecasting
Exercise 9.1
The following data represents the total personnel expense for the Palmdale Human Service Agency for the past four years.
The text is asking for the 20x5 figures using the either one of the four forecasting models, in this process, to find the 20x5 figures the process will include using the models of moving averages, weighted moving averages, and exponential smoothing. Moving averages and weighted moving averages, by adding and dividing only the data for the past three fiscal years:
Moving Averages
Weighted Moving Averages
20x5 = $37,750,000, divided by 6 = 6,291,667 weighted average.
Exponential Smoothing
With the information that I have gather, now a new forecast can be generated. The alpha method of 0.95, because it will give me the latest information I need, and the formula looks like this: NF = LF + a (LD – LF).
Time Series Regression
Y = A + BX where Y is the forecast.
A is the Base or the constant.
B is the unit value change in the forecast variable.
X is the increment of time to be forecast
When doing exercise 9.1, it was easy for me to...