Freemark Abbey Winery
To solve a difficult problem, first of all, we have to decide the point of view. In this case, we focus on the view of William Jaeger, the owner of the winery. His decision is based mainly on the profit which the winery can make. The problem in this case is that he doesn’t know whether a rainstorm would hit Freemark Abbey Winery. If a storm passes through the vineyard, the crop will be ruined and this will lead to a loss. However, if not, a warm, light rain will make “botrytis cinerea” which will result in wine with better quality.
By using decision tree with information provided in the case, we can easily find out that “NOT HARVEST” would bring him much profit than “HARVEST.” However, before we reach a conclusion, we should consider missed data, indicators, and symptoms. If he runs a risk, he could make more profit. But there is a “risk” in this decision. If a storm hit the vineyard, this could give him a loss. So, the issue in this case is whether he wants to take a risk for more profit or get a certain amount of profit on all occasions. We must not assume that he just wants to make more money. Even if “NOT HARVEST” could bring him a chance to make more money, he may want to make a reasonable profit with certainty.
All in all, we can recommend different decisions to William Jaeger in this case. If it is more important to gain more profit in this fall, he had better run a risk and do not harvest until botrytis is developed. On the other hand, if he needs to get predictable profit, he may not wait.