ASELSAN
ASELS
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Index
Base Case Assumptions
Equity Value
Item
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
WACC
14,60%
11,60%
7,60%
EBIT Margin
13,50%
13,50%
1,30
1,30
18%-10%
9%-5%
20,0%
20,0%
Capital Turnover
Growth (% )
Capital Structure ( % of Debt )
BUY
Investment Recommendation:
-10%
Base Case
Value
Range
+10%
Downside%
13,81
10,78
8,84
4,97
18,0%
13,50%
9,20
10,78
12,37
3,17
14,7%
1,30
10,61
10,78
10,93
0,32
1,6%
4%
9,24
10,78
12,77
3,53
14,3%
40,0%
10,75
10,78
11,12
0,37
0,3%
We conducted a sensitivity analysis for our value drivers to show what the share value would be if our fundamental variables would have been changed by 10% up and down.Our
analysis suggests that our fundamental share value estimate is most sensitive to WACC assumptions, followed by EBIT margin and growth assumptions. If our WACC estimates for all
stages were assumed be 10% higher, our share value estimate would drop 18,0 % from TRY 10,78 to TRY 8,84. If our EBIT Margin estimates for all stages were assumed be 10%
lower, our share value estimate would drop by 14,7% from TRY 10,78 to TRY 9,20. Finally, if we decrease our growth estimates by 10% , the share value would decline 14,3 % from
TRY 10,78 to TRY 9,24.
RATIO ANALYSIS
Liquidity Ratios
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Liquidity Ratio
-78,0%
206,0%
425,9%
1902,4%
137,5%
132,2%
Current Ratio
2,4
2,7
2,4
3,0
3,3
2,5
Acid-test Ratio
0,7
0,5
1,1
1,5
1,1
1,2
Efficiency Ratios
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
WCR / Sales
-12,7%
13,4%
8,2%
2,3%
29,6%
30,5%
Collection Period
46
52
69
38
67
117
Inventory Period
391
372
271
191
182
172
Payment Period
-
49
35
59
50
85...