Table of Contents
Page No.
3
1. Need for forecasting
2. Steps for forecasting 3
3. Building up back ground for assigned data in pragmatic context; manufactures’ shipments of Home goods and Apparel 3
4. Analysis of Principal Data 4
5. Selected techniques together with justification for the choice of these forecasting techniques; Naïve Models, Multiple Regressions, Centered (Three/Quarterly Period) Moving Average, Econometric Models, Exponential Smoothing
5
6. Reasons for rejecting other inappropriate techniques 6
Classical Decomposition, Simple averages, Box-Jenkins
7. Interpreting various methods of the goodness of fit 7
Explanation, MAD, MSE, MAPE, MPE
8. Other vital forecasting issues which should be examined while producing medium to long term forecast; Time horizon, Ease of explanation, Speed of projection of forecast, Levels of accuracy require, Use/ format of the forecast statistics, Monetary cost associated 8
9. Conclusion 9
10. Bibliography 10
11. Appendices 11-13
1. The Need for forecasting:
Dr. Kenichi Ohmea (1995) explained, “Planning ahead is essential for business survival”. An environment which is competitive allows only those certain number of people who are ready to shape themselves for existing trends. This basic fact allows the opportunity for one to make an educated guess for the future. Through forecasting a business can identify the risks and uncertainties of the future which will save the business from shocks in the future. Up until now business success has been through the different types of forecasting techniques, such as Smoothing, Box-Jenkins and Decomposition. These techniques...