China’s economy has shown substantial growth throughout the past twenty years at an estimated rate of 9 percent per year. If their rate of growth remains consistent their GDP will reach that of the most powerful countries in the world. If you analyze historical trends of countries reaching similar economic plateaus, maintaining their authoritarian structure will be very difficult. Their increased competition in the global markets will also persuade this transition, as outside influence will expose the country and it’s people to the democratic structure. In the text Payne points out that economic prosperity and global market integration are two of the main causes of a society’s increased receptiveness to democracy.
The United States has a long history of trying to push political liberalization onto unsupporting nations, making their opinion clear that it is in the world’s best interest to accept democracy. This pressure will make an impact over time but I feel that the deciding pressure will come from the citizens of China. It is the middle class who has the numbers and the voice to promote change. In theory it is said that as long as the middle class is content with the status of their country then change will not be sought. Throughout the next few decades China’s prosperity will most likely continue, bringing fourth the notion of new opportunities for it’s citizens. I am confident that the new generation will seek to take advantage of these resulting opportunities and seek change in the confining communistic way of life.
Chinas economic characteristics display all the familiarities of a transitioning society, but nothing can be said for certain. Chinese has resisted change through strong influence for many years. If you look back at the Soviet Union’s difficulty in converting to democracy, maybe a slow gradual reform is what China will do. However I feel that with the increased pressure from other countries new exposure brought fourth from...