The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
Goldman Sachs Research
Global Themes and Risks
September 2013
Abby Joseph Cohen, CFA Koby Sadan
Goldman, Sachs & Co. Goldman, Sachs & Co.
1-212-902-4095 1-212-902-7009
abby.cohen@gs.com koby.sadan@gs.com
The Global Markets Institute is the public policy research unit of Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Its mission is to provide research and high-level advisory services to policymakers, regulators and investors around the world. The Institute leverages the expertise of Research and other Goldman Sachs professionals, as well as highly regarded partners, to offer written analyses and host discussion forums.
Composition of US GDP, 2006-2014
Reduced government spending a drag on GDP growth
GDP Domestic Final Demand Personal Consumption Residential Fixed Investment Business Fixed Investment Government Exports Imports
2006 2.7 % 2.6 2.9 (7.3) 8.0 2.1 9.0 6.1
2007 1.9 % 1.2 2.3 (18.7) 6.5 1.3 9.3 2.4
2008 (0.3) % (1.5) (0.6) (23.9) (0.8) 7.2 6.1 (2.7)
Growth Rates 2009 2010 (3.1) % 2.4 % (4.0) 2.8 (1.9) (22.4) (18.1) 6.1 (9.1) (13.5) 1.8 (3.7) 0.7 4.5 11.1 12.5
2011 1.8 % 1.7 2.5 (1.4) 8.6 (2.8) 6.7 4.8
2012 2.2 % 2.1 1.9 12.1 8.0 (2.2) 3.4 2.4
2013(E) 1.6 % 1.4 1.9 13.6 3.0 (5.7) 2.6 1.5
2014(E) 2.9 % 2.9 2.4 14.3 7.7 (5.2) 5.0 4.6
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 2
Composition of US GDP, 2013-2014
Expect quarterly volatility linked to weather, inventories and global factors including European activity
Growth Rates Q1 1.1 % 1.4 2.3 12.5 (4.6) (8.4) (1.3) 0.6 2013 Q2 E Q3 E 2.5 % 1.6 % 2.4 1.2 1.8 12.9 4.4 (1.6) 8.6 7.0 1.7 10.4 6.3 (10.0) 5.0 1.7 Q4 E 2.5 % 2.6 2.0 15.0 8.2 (5.0) 4.0 4.0 Q1 E 3.0 % 3.1 2.5 15.0 8.2 (5.0) 5.0 5.0 2014 Q3 E Q2 E 3.5 % 3.5 % 3.6 3.7 3.0 15.0 8.2 (5.0) 5.0 5.0 3.0 15.0 8.2 (4.0) 5.0 5.5 Q4 E 3.5 % 3.7 3.0 15.0 8.2 (3.0) 5.0 5.5
GDP Domestic Final Demand Personal Consumption...