How does the India of 2025 look like: Socially, Politically, and Economically
Political –
India has seen coalition governments in past 2 decades and this trend will more or less continue in 2025 also. Being such a diverse country, regional parties are bound to get strong and the difference between them and national parties will reduce. Cast politics, hopefully and logically, will become redundant. Election reforms/laws may improve the quality and maturity of Indian Politicians and Voters. Politics over religion may not remain the trump card as the higher education level increases and hopefully developmental politics may not have any alternative.
Optimistic Scenario – The government should consist of one dominant party (which can be either BJP or Congress) and their dependence on the Coalition parties should be minimal. In that case the governments will be in a better situation to carry out reforms. There can be a system of Preferential Voting where in the voters can indicate their 2nd preference also1. This will lead to selection of better accepted candidate and may help give better result when the margins are less. It will be a good
Pessimistic – A hung parliament – third front operating with the outside support of a national party, which can show opportunistic behaviour, repeated elections like 90s. Religion/Casts remaining to be the way to garner votes rather than developmental issues. The independence of Judiciary, RBI, Election Commission, and Investigative Agencies may be endangered. If populist measures which are not healthy for the country are carried out just to garner votes2.
Economical –
We are already #3 in the world in GDP PPP, but far behind in per capita. By 2025, the per capita GDP should increase significantly. The same reasons which led to the rapid growth post LPG reforms, will lead the another bout of growth in next decade.
Optimistic Scenario – India’s more than half population is in working age. This demographic Dividend...