- Submitted By: MishkaSolange222
- Date Submitted: 02/27/2016 12:28 PM
- Category: Business
- Words: 1548
- Page: 7

Task 4

I. A1. Expected Completion Time

ECT is derived using the formula which obviously gives more weight to the “probable” time estimate:

Where a = Optimistic time

b = Probable time to complete

m = Pessimistic time

Before allowing for concurrent activities. those that can proceed on parallel tracks, as it were, ECT for the entire project is shown by Table 1 (overleaf) below as 68 ½ weeks:

Table 1: First Estimate of ECT

a

m

b

Calculation

Expected Time to Complete (weeks)

Task

A

2

3

4

(2+(4x3)+4)/6

3

B

5

6

13

(5+(4x6)+13)/6

7

C

3

4

8

(3+(4x4)+8)/6

4.5

D

10

11

15

(10+(4x11)+15)/6

11.5

E

4

5

6

(4+(4x5)+6)/6

5

F

8

10

12

(8+(4x10)+12)/6

10

G

4

6

11

(4+(4x6)+11)/6

6.5

H

8

10

18

(8+(4x10)+18)/6

11

I

3

6

12

(3+(4x6)+12)/6

6.5

J

2

3

7

(2+(4x3)+7)/6

3.5

TOTAL

68.5

But the fact is, there are many possibilities for concurrent project activity. Task B, for instance, can be triggered by project start and has no start-to-finish link with Task A. Task D itself does not depend on tasks A and C being completed; it can proceed as soon as B is done. When one runs through all the concurrent stages, net elapsed time can really collapse to 35 weeks (Table 2 below). Given ECT = ES + t, as well, Table 3 (overleaf) displays the calculations and outcomes which compress project completion to 30 weeks.

Table 2: ECT Based on "Probable Time to Complete" and Employing Forward Pass

Task

Preceding Activity

Probable Time to Complete

(weeks)

Earliest Start

Earliest Finish

START

A

START

3

0

3

B

START

6

0

6

C

A

4

3

7

D

B

11

6

17

E

C

5

7

12

F

B

10

6

16

G

F

6

16

22

H

D,E

10

17

27

I

G

6

22

28

J

H,I

3

28

31

END

TOTAL

64

31

II. A1a. Schedule Variance

Conceding a degree of uncertainty for each task and employing the formula for variance of activity time:

Where a = optimistic time and b =...