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Week 8:
The Evaluation
of Commercial Ideas
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Agenda
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Why Evaluate Ideas?
Introduction of Win2 system to evaluate ideas.
Pugh method to evaluate ideas.
Exercise
How to recognize good opportunities?
Competitive advantages.
What is needed to be successful?
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Why evaluate ideas?
• Picking winners
– Which one of our possible innovation opportunities or ideas
has the best likelihood of success
• Avoiding losers
• Risk management
– Clearly any new business needs to be able to assess the
level of risk involve with undertaking the opportunity or
developing innovation
• Innovation assessment
– On ongoing basis
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Analytical, Logical
Imaginative, Contextual
Factual, Critical
Visual, Holistic
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D
Idea Synthesis
ENGINEER
Idea
Idea
Evaluation
JUDGE
Problem Definition
DETECTIVE
Generation
EXPLORER
ARTIST
PRODUCER
B
Planned, Controlled
Administrative, Detailed
Solution Implementation
C
Value-based, Intuitive
Interpersonal, Emotional
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A
B
C
G
D
E
F
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Win²
• PIES (Preliminary Innovation Evaluation System)
– Professor Gerry Udell
• Funded by National Science Foundation (USA)
• Wal-Mart
– 2200 ideas evaluated over 10 years
– Predicted failure with 92% accuracy
• UNIEI redesign
• Preliminary tool!
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1. Societal Criteria
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Legality
Safety
Environmental Impact
Societal Impact
– Will it improves people’s life?
CalmSpace: Power Nap
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2. Business Risk Criteria
• Functional Feasibility
– Will the product/service function as we believe it will?
• Production Feasibility
– Can the product/service be easily produce?
• Stage of Development
– What are the stages of development?
• Investment Costs
– Do we have enough money to invest in the innovation?
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Business Risk Criteria (2)
• Profitability
– Do we envisage that the innovation/idea will make a
profit in the...