Description
The agricultural sector in 2002 is expected to record lower growth of around 1.6 percent, compared to 2.1 percent of the previous year. Despite expectations for rebounding agricultural prices in 2002, it is predicted that supplies of many types of major agricultural produce will fall, following low agricultural prices in the previous year, which discouraged farmers from expanding their production. On the whole, produce is expected to decline, while prices are likely to rebound, in line with higher global demand for such produce as rice, tapioca, para-rubber, meat and chicken; while the prices of some other major agricultural products may fall, particularly jumbo tiger prawns. Therefore, agricultural prices could remain a major problem challenging the government, as some prices might get higher, while others decline. During January-February 2002, export values of agricultural products and agro-industrial products totaled USD1,828.7 million, decreasing 7.2 percent from the same period, last year. It is noted that export values of ((processed)) agro-industrial products during the first two months of 2002 looked positive -- i.e., a total growth of USD762.7 million, or a 9.9-percent year-on-year growth. But exports of general agricultural produce during the first two months of this year fell by 5.2 percent, year-on-year, to USD1,066 million. However, it remains to be seen whether the increases during the first two-months of the year were a result of rebounding global demand, or possibly just a recovery from low exports of agro-industrial products in 2001. This is contrary to the case in 2000-2001, when exports increased considerably, and thus by being exceptional in export values, caused the performance in first two months of this year to seem lackluster in comparison. The Thai Farmers Research Center Company, Limited (TFRC) expects that exports of agricultural and agro-industrial products in 2002 to increase slightly over last year -- i.e., a...