Identifying Unsafe Driver Actions
that Lead to Fatal Car-Truck Crashes
Prepared by
Prepared for
Lidia P. Kostyniuk, Fredrick M. Streff,
and Jennifer Zakrajsek
AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety
University of Michigan
Transportation Research Institute
1440 New York Avenue, N.W., Suite 201
Washington, DC 20005
www.aaafoundation.org
April 2002
Cover photo: J. Scott Osberg/AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety
Contents
Acknowledgments ................................................................................................................................................................................ii
Executive Summary ..........................................................................................................................................................................iii
Introduction ..............................................................................................................................................................................................1
Methodology ..............................................................................................................................................................................................2
Chapter 1. The First Stage of Research: Identifying Unsafe Driver Actions
Bayesian Approach ................................................................................................................................................................................5
Data ................................................................................................................................................................................................................6
Estimating Likelihood Ratios ....................................................................................................................................................10
Conclusions...